Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.

Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning October 7th, 2019.

Dow and S&P 500 will try to snap a 3-week slide as US-China trade talks kick off in the week ahead – (Source)


Stocks will try to regain their mojo next week as China and the U.S. hold long-awaited trade negotiations in Washington.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.9% this week while the S&P 500 slid about 0.3%. Overall, the two averages posted their first three-week losing streak since August.


Wall Street’s poor performance for the week comes after a disappointing U.S. manufacturing data report sparked fears of a recession. The report itself pointed to trade as a key source of weakness for the manufacturing sector, making next week’s trade talks the key focus for traders.


“Trade talks are crucial, not just for the U.S., but globally,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. “The conclusion from central bankers, CEOs and CFOs is we’re slowing down.”


“They are waiting for something constructive,” said Krosby.


The Institute for Supply Management said Tuesday that U.S. manufacturing activity contracted to its lowest level in more than 10 years. This data sparked a two-day sell-off in which the Dow dropped more than 800 points. ISM Chair Timothy Fiore said trade “remains the most significant issue.”


Trade tensions between China and the U.S. have heightened over the past year, with both countries exchanging tariffs on billions of dollars worth of their products. However, the tone around U.S.-China trade improved recently as China increased last month .


White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow also said Friday that “positive surprises” could come out of next week’s negotiations. Chinese and U.S. negotiators are expected to meet next Thursday and Friday.


But Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research, warned signs of progress are crucial for the market moving forward. “Markets have entered a ‘show me’ phase,” he said in a note to clients.


Investors will also look ahead to the Federal Reserve releasing the minutes from its September meeting on Wednesday. The Fed cut rates last month by 25 basis points for the second time this year, citing “the implications of global developments for the economic outlook” among other factors.


“It seems to me Powell is laying the blame or the explanation for the weakness directly at the feet of the administration,” said Jason Thomas, chief economist at AssetMark. “It’s growth outside of the U.S. It’s the parts of the U.S. economy that are exposed to trade that are being affected. Other than that, the economy is doing fine.”


Nonetheless, the probability of a third Fed rate cut increased this week amid weaker-than-forecast services and jobs-growth data. Market expectations for an October rate cut rose to around 80% from about 50% in the previous week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.


On Thursday, ISM said the U.S. services sector grew at its slowest pace since August 2016. Meanwhile, data released Friday by the Labor Department showed slower-than-expected jobs growth in the U.S.


Counterintuitively, the stock market got a boost after both data sets were released. The major averages posted solid gains on Thursday and rallied more than 1% on Friday with the Dow jumping more than 350 points.


“With job growth decent but slowing, a contraction in manufacturing, the ongoing trade war, and low inflation, the Federal Reserve will cut the fed funds rate” later in October, said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, in a note.


This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE WEEK-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MONTH-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 3-MONTH PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YEAR-TO-DATE PERFORMANCE!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE 52-WEEK PERFORMANCE!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

Next Week's Economic Indicators – 10/4/19

All-in-all, it was a pretty mixed week for economic data, specifically manufacturing and labor data. While Markit’s gauge on manufacturing was slightly stronger than both expectations and the August print, ISM’s version disappointed with little in the way of bright spots among its components. Hard data, on the other hand, is showing a bit of a different picture as Durable Goods appear healthy with the fastest 3m/3m growth rate since last November as we discussed in Thursday's Closer. The Markit Services PMI and ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Index were also split with Markit’s reading holding steady as ISM disappointed once again. Employment data was the other major focus of the week with similar disappointments, but some silver linings. Ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls Report, ISM’s Employment components for both the Manufacturing and Services sectors further weakened in September while this week’s initial jobless claims rose slightly more than expected (although continuing claims fell again). ADP’s reading on employment also fell more than expected. The NFP report followed suit showing fewer jobs added in September, but new lows in the unemployment rate and underemployment rate added to the case of continued labor market strength.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Economic data takes a bit of a breather next week with only two-thirds as many releases this week. Consumer credit is first up on the docket and is expected to moderate to $15 billion after a very strong print last time around. On Tuesday, we will get confidence numbers out of the small business world. NFIB’s Small Business Optimism is forecasted to fall to 102.5 from 103.1 in August. PPI is also out that morning, although no change is expected for both the headline and core numbers. CPI data is due to be released later in the week on Thursday and likewise, no change is expected. Further in inflation data, on Friday, import and export price indices are also scheduled to be released. In labor data, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will come out on Wednesday followed by weekly claims numbers the following day. After rising to 219K this week, claims are expected to improve to 217K. Finally, Friday’s preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment for October will round out the week. It is expected to fall to 92.0 after last month’s rebound up to 93.2.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Labor Market Chugs Along

The U.S. labor market keeps chugging along, despite signs of weakness in other pockets of the U.S. economy.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 136,000 in September, and July and August payrolls growth were revised up by 45,000. The 12-month average payrolls change climbed to 179,000 including Friday’s data, still slightly higher than the expansion average.

Overall, the September jobs report showed hiring has been steady, defying recent worries of economic weakness after surprisingly weak manufacturing and services surveys were released earlier this week. Other labor-market measures also look healthy. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in September, a new cycle low, and initial jobless claims are still subdued.

Wage growth slowed notably last month, though, hinting that inflationary pressures could be moderating. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, average hourly earnings growth fell to 2.9% year over year, the slowest pace since July 2018.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Slowing average hourly earnings growth could point to a cooling job market. However, average hourly earnings growth for production and nonsupervisory workers increased 3.5% year over year, indicating there could be temporary influences weighing down the overall wage measure. At any rate, 2.9% wage growth is still enough to buoy personal incomes and consumer spending while keeping interest rates at bay.

“Even though hiring has slowed slightly this year, it still looks healthy for the 10th year of this economic expansion,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “Wages are growing near a 3% clip, and we still see evidence that domestic inflation is subdued enough to support an accommodative Federal Reserve.”


October Most Volatile Month of the Year

Historically speaking, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) tends to reach its seasonal high in the month of October. This may be due to the fact that the two worst performing months of the year, August and September (by average performance) precede it. October also has the honor of slaying twelve, post-WWII bear markets. A bear market’s low is frequently accompanied by high levels of fear and market volatility. VIX’s seasonal pattern can be seen in the following chart. October’s peak and July’s low are indicated by blue arrows.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

October’s volatility peak is also visible when actual daily percent changes are analyzed. October has hosted the most daily moves in excess of 1%, 2%, 3%, 5%, 7% and even 10% since 1930. Do not fret over the nine times S&P 500 has moved more than 10% in a single day. Six of the nine occurrences were way back in the 1930’s. Only three have occurred more recently and out of those, two were actually positive days (10/13/2008 +11.58% and 10/28/2008 +10.79%). Actually only two of the nine days with moves in excess of 10% were negative days: 3/18/1935 –10.06% and 10/19/1987 –20.47%.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Putting the table data into a bar chart adds a quick confirmation of October’s heightened volatility versus all other months.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Some October Weakness Common in Pre-Election Years

It certainly did not take long for the market to trigger Octoberphobia this year. Tuesday’s soft manufacturing report was at least part of the trigger. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have already declined over 2.6% and its just the second trading day of the month. Tomorrow’s Non-Manufacturing ISM report and Friday’s jobs report could sooth some of the current recession fears and warrant close attention. However, market weakness in October, even in pre-election years is common. Our recent post showed October ranking second worst of all month in pre-election years.

October’s tepid history in pre-election years can also be seen in the following seasonal pattern charts. The only real notably difference between this year and past pre-election years is weakness has arrived earlier. Looking at the black line in each chart, the average pre-election year October pullback has been around 3% for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. A larger pullback this year would not be out of the question considering trade, growth and political uncertainty. If economic data proves resilient, then the usual end of year rally enjoyed in past pre-election years will likely materialize.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending October 4th, 2019

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.6.19

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())

(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)


Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-


  • $DPZ
  • $DAL
  • $AZZ
  • $LEVI
  • $HELE
  • $FAST
  • $INFY
  • $SAR
  • $EXFO

(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MOST ANTICIPATED EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 5 WEEKS!)

Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:


Monday 10.7.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

NONE.

Monday 10.7.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())

NONE.


Tuesday 10.8.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Tuesday 10.8.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Wednesday 10.9.19 Before Market Open:

([CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())

NONE.

Wednesday 10.9.19 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Thursday 10.10.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Thursday 10.10.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!]())

NONE.


Friday 10.11.19 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 10.11.19 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())

NONE.


Domino's Pizza, Inc. $242.13

Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 8, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.05 per share on revenue of $819.40 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.13% with revenue increasing by 4.25%. Short interest has increased by 63.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 4.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.2% below its 200 day moving average of $258.01. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, October 1, 2019 there was some notable buying of 1,598 contracts of the $240.00 put expiring on Friday, October 18, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 7.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Delta Air Lines, Inc. $53.81

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, October 10, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.27 per share on revenue of $12.59 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.30 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.10 to $2.40 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 26.11% with revenue increasing by 5.33%. Short interest has increased by 63.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 10.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.4% below its 200 day moving average of $54.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 25, 2019 there was some notable buying of 5,260 contracts of the $67.50 call expiring on Friday, January 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


AZZ Inc. $42.80

AZZ Inc. (AZZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, October 8, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.53 per share on revenue of $233.50 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 23.26% with revenue increasing by 4.81%. Short interest has decreased by 9.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 11.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.6% below its 200 day moving average of $43.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Levi Strauss & Co. $19.29

Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, October 8, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.27 per share on revenue of $1.43 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 53.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 11.4% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 8.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Helen of Troy Ltd. $160.00

Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, October 8, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.76 per share on revenue of $383.90 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 3.30% with revenue decreasing by 2.45%. Short interest has decreased by 6.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.1% above its 200 day moving average of $132.11. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Fastenal Co. $31.78

Fastenal Co. (FAST) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Friday, October 11, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.36 per share on revenue of $1.37 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.35 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 63% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 47.83% with revenue increasing by 7.05%. Short interest has decreased by 8.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.4% above its 200 day moving average of $31.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, September 18, 2019 there was some notable buying of 2,599 contracts of the $31.20 call expiring on Friday, November 15, 2019. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.2% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Infosys Technologies Ltd. $11.22

Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Friday, October 11, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.14 per share on revenue of $3.20 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.15 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 7.69% with revenue increasing by 9.55%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.0% above its 200 day moving average of $11.00. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 7.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


Saratoga Investment Corp $24.11

Saratoga Investment Corp (SAR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:25 PM ET on Wednesday, October 9, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.60 per share on revenue of $12.38 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.62 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 88% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.04% with revenue increasing by 8.57%. Short interest has increased by 109.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.8% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


EXFO Inc. $3.70

EXFO Inc. (EXFO) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, October 9, 2019. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.05 per share on revenue of $69.05 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.02 to $0.06 per share on revenue of $66.00 million to $71.00 million. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 0.00% with revenue decreasing by 0.24%. Short interest has decreased by 41.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 3.0% from its open following the earnings release. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)


DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?


I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/StockMarket.

submitted by /u/bigbear0083
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