Alright boys. I've been researching the Corona Virus heavily for the last month. These four snapshots from Corona virus research articles basically sum up where academic researchers are at, and these range from being submitted in early February to last week.
The fact that we are seeing an 14% virus resurgence in cleared survivors is very concerning. Really points towards those infected being put into quarantine for an additional month after testing negative. Japan and China are both experiencing resurgence. (https://r.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO56100960W0A220C2AC8000?s=4)
This means that China factories are hammered, which will further interrupt their their supply chains, two weeks ago cargo ships were leaving at 10% capacity.
On 2/25, the CDC detailed multiple stark realities about where this disease is headed. I encourage you to read the transcript: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html
Keep in mind, the asymptomatic period was reported to be 27 days.. Today alone we saw Pakistan, Algeria, Brazil, Finland, Georgia, and Greece report their first cases, which means that these patients could have been spreading it undetected for up to 3-4 weeks.
South Korea is in a full state of emergency, enacted emergency funding, and are trying their best to contain it but they have yet to contain the virus from spreading. Countries are banning flights from many of the outbreak countries now, hopefully this should help.
The article speculating that a 95% quarantine efficacy will not be able to contain the virus was submitted on February 7th.
This article really stands out to me because the study was funded by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). DARPA is a HUGE part of the US department of defense that specializes in weapons research and development, their budget 2019 was $3.4 billion dollars.
The CDC & FDA will be under big pressure to issue CODX with FDA approval for their test kits. It has already been reported that the CDC's test kits are faulty, Hawaii will not get any test kits until mid March, and only 5 or 6 states have testing capabilities right now.
CODX's test kits are speculated to retail for $25,000 each and the CEO reported this weekend that they have the capabilities to produce up to 150k units a day between their main Utah facility and facility in India.
The crazy part is… one BIG event researchers are worried about is when the virus hits South America and the bat population fuels the spread and possibly future mutations of the virus. With the carnival in Brazil last week they saw big tourism numbers, they had their first confirmed case yesterday.
If you'd like to reach the research articles that I pulled the above snap shots from for your self:
"The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated”: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf+html
"Relative Sensitivity of International Surveillance”: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College—COVID-19—Relative-Sensitivity-International-Cases.pdf
"Assessing the impact of a symptom-based mass screening and testing intervention during a novel infectious disease outbreak: The case of COVID-19”: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.20.20025973v1
"Estimation of the epidemic properties of the 2019 novel coronavirus: A mathematical modeling study”: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024315v1
My portfolio is currently 33% CODX, 33% APT, and 33% AHPI.
CODX: Shares Outstanding 24,916,000, Float 16,954,890, Insider Ownership, 26.66% Insitutional Ownership 3.70%.
APT: Shares Outstanding 13,021,000, Float 10,133,697, Insider Ownership 22.14%, Insitutional Ownership 25.50%.
AHPI: Shares Outstanding 4,014,000, Float 2,286,607, Insider Ownership 2.30%, Insitutional Ownership 10.00%.
IMO, Test kits and personal protection medical equipment is what you're going to want to be in. Corona Vaccine stocks like MRNA and AIM are too risky imo. Below are the stocks that will see big returns until the virus gets under control:
Medical supplies (LAKE, APT, AHPI, BIMI)
Vaccine / treatment (NNVC, NVAX, MRNA, INO, SXTC)
Drugs / Testing (LLIT, CODX, CJJD)
If you'd like to keep up on the news reports, below are two good ones I recommend along with a website keeps track of infections: