####TL;DR and Disclosures
We think that the safest play is to buy $ALT around $4 or less as soon as possible since the chances of the rocket taking off soon are very high. In the case of options, we would recommend 2020/03/20 $5 for $ALT.
In the case of $TNXP buying below $1.50 as soon as possible would be recommended and if you want the quick payoff, sell Tuesday AH due to the dilution on Wednesday. However, $TNXP is second in the race for the vaccine so it could very well be a long play. In the case you want to go long, sell Tuesday and buy again on Wednesday for max gains. $TNXP, unfortunately, has no options.
I currently own around $1000 in $ALT (purchased at 3.80 a share in Friday trading session) and $1500 in $TNXP (purchased PM today at 9:10 am at an average price point of 1.30). $ALT and $TNXT are poised to moon based on both technicals and fundamentals. Screenshots attached for your edification.
Please guys, remember, investment comes with the risk of loss and I am not advocating any of these positions, simply providing my research.
[Here are my open positions I currently hold, for transparency](https://imgur.com/a/Su51A83)
I go by pokeking and this content is brought to you by the penny stock channel in the WSB Discord. First and foremost, I want to disclose my stake in $ALT and $TNXT. I currently own around $1000 in $ALT (purchased at 3.80 a share in Friday trading session) and $1500 in $TNXT (purchased PM today at 9:10 am at an average price point of 1.30).
The real reason we’re bringing you this content today (edited by several members of the group) is that we spent the weekend researching CV penny stock plays and after collective DD. We believe these two stocks are poised for breakouts over the next several days and beyond. These stocks have fundamentals and technicals aligned. I personally spent a lot of time digging through various SEC filings of these NASDAQ publicly listed micro cap stocks and believe their fundamentals are great (I’m a fundamentals trader myself).
The first place we started our DD was [this list](https://www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/novel-coronavirus-landscape-ncov.pdf?ua=1) that I’m sure many of you have seen. Around Thursday, we began digging through this list looking for microcap stocks to invest in. Due to some fortuitous twitter action we were able to catch the upswing on $IBIO previous to their 400% moon. As you’ll see in the technical analysis, that’s most CV stocks’ max. I have no position in $IBIO to close, but they’re probably not poised for breakout much beyond here based on technicals. I could be wrong, though. All of this could be wrong. However, research under $ALT stocks aligns with this 400% expectation and it’s the best we got, so that’s what we’ve been going on the basis of.
From the list, we began our due diligence on 5 companies. I’m not going to walk you through the list, but it’s the microcaps listed above. From there, we broke it down and went through all the company’s SEC Filings, research, and press releases and postulated on which would be best. We then looked at company filings Monday morning. As you can see, I got into $ALT on Friday, postulating that with their investor meeting and 126% price spike to the upside with no pattern before that they still had another 275% gain to the upside potential. They are now lower than when I posted them.
Also, of note is increased volume in Stocktwits on all of these trades. This implies increased volume as retail investors are taking note of the stock.
Thanks and enjoy the read!
- Tonix is second furthest along in progression (behind $10 billion market cap company Moderna) towards the vaccine out of all companies currently in the race as they have been [working on viral biodefense](https://www.tonixpharma.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1052/tonix-pharmaceuticals-announces-demonstrated-vaccine) for years now. [They have announced a partnership to begin Phase 2B trials in conjunction with Southern Research.](https://www.tonixpharma.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1191/tonix-pharmaceuticals-announces-research-collaboration-with) ***(Note: $ALT is still looking to establish partnership despite being ready to proceed in Phase B trials)***.
- Tonix is poised for technical break out and likely only didn’t moon today because of lowered volume today due to Robinhood outages and looming offering set to close on March 3, 2020 for $16,005,000 (14,550,000 common shares @ $1.10) [Link for article](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tonix-pharmaceuticals-inc-prices-16-134510192.html)/[SEC filing](https://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=13968078&RcvdDate=2/28/2020&CoName=TONIX%20PHARMACEUTICALS%20HOLDING%20CORP.&FormType=424B5&View=html).
- However, of imminent note is Tonix’s stock deal with MM’s which means on Wednesday there will be a liquidity event that will dilute stock values significantly. That being said, Tonix is second in the race and at a current valuation of $50 million after capital infusion at a minimum are poised for breakout on the trading day tomorrow. See technical trading explanation under $ALT DD for more details on this.
- Technical Analysis (https://imgur.com/a/i0mjHbW)
Positive crossover MACD
- First resistance line → $1.40
- Second resistance line → $1.50
- Third resistance line → $1.90
- Power hour (Monday, March 2) shows high accumulation
A member of the group made a very informative DD presentation, and I’ll be making a TL;DR for it in this section, along with highlighting other sources. [Link for presentation](https://imgur.com/a/RQRXFqz)
There are 9 basic arguments for $ALT to shoot up from the presentation, however I will be merging some together for the sake of the TL;DR.
- **The Math**: A member managed to patternize various popping COVID-19 (novel coronavirus) stocks by their charts. It was noted that there is an overnight jump of any X% which would then be followed by another jump of X^2.1%. The first jump has already happened to $ALT, however the second jump hasn’t been hit yet. This means that, based on other data points, $ALT could go as high as $8.49. Check the charts from the link if you want the data in front of you. The volume of this stock is also growing, causing bot attention and multiple media sources to mention $ALT.
- **Government Funds**: Trump and Pence have a 2.5 billion dollar plan to curb the outbreak and based on [this article](https://stockpence.com/featured/trump-meeting-pharmaceutical-coronavirus/amp), $ALT and $TNXP were present at the White House conference. Along with this, WHO’s list mentions $ALT or $TNXP as potential partners in this crisis.
- **Panic and Bad news about COVID-19**: The California Bay Area has announced plans for school closures due to the virus outbreak in the Bay. In addition the virus is only going to spread more causing more panic and will draw more investors. The spreading of the virus will not be affected by the economy, so even if we recover, ALT stock will still be hot.
- **Cheap Solution**: $ALT’s solution for the vaccine is one if the most efficient and cheap since it is a nasal spray. It doesn’t require a doctor to administer and is very effective especially since the virus is airborne.
- **$ALT’s talk at Cowen**: $ALT had an amazing talk today highlighting their plans for the future along with COVID-19 updates. They also have a couple of multimillion dollar contracts coming up.
- [$ALT Cowen slides](http://wsw.com/webcast/cowen57/alt/index.aspx)
- Perfect Bull Flag
[This means the stock is bullish and we are due for a breakout](https://i.imgur.com/jiq4KK2.png)
- Pattern With Other Biotech companies
[Additive boxcar function](https://i.imgur.com/jz4wZfi.png)
- Example [$IBIO](https://i.imgur.com/TTNMAWZ.png):
- 1st Jump: 150% (2.5 multiplier increase)
- 2nd Jump: 650% (2.5^(2.1) multiplier increase)
- Example [$AIM](https://i.imgur.com/tVaWXDg.png):
- 1st Jump: 62% (1.5 multiplier increase)
- 2nd Jump: 176% (1.5^(2.1) multiplier increase)
- Example [$MRNA](https://i.imgur.com/MzGfe0Q.png):
- 1st Jump: 20% (1.2 multiplier increase)
- 2nd Jump: 50% (1.2^(2.2) multiplier increase)
- Example [$NVAX](https://i.imgur.com/uiClNXG.png):
- 1st Jump: 15% (1.15 multiplier increase)
- 2nd Jump: 34% (1.15^(2.1) multiplier increase)
- 3rd Jump: 84% ((1.15^(2.1))^(2.1) multiplier increase)
- Jumps always follow the math. $ALT is currently trading around $3. Trading at about 90% more than what it’s been averaging at for the last 6 months. It will be trading at 1.9^2.1 = 3.84 => 284% more than what it was. This is equal to over $8 (possibly higher with the news that’s been coming out).
- The volume for Altimmune is steadily increasing. Showing large momentum for the value of the stock. $ALT is not slowing down.
- 2020/03/20 $5 call options for $ALT are decreasing (less than 100 now). 2020/04/17 $5 call options for $ALT are **sold out**.
- Government Funding
- As of 2020/02/28 the US government made the announcement that there is an urgent [$2.5b plan](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-white-house-2-5-billion-plan-vaccine-congress-funding/) to address the coronavirus outbreak. This number has only increased since the release of the news.
- Altimmune had a set of [slides](http://wsw.com/webcast/cowen57/alt/index.aspx) detailing their work on the coronavirus at the Cowen 40th annual health care conference. The company has made this one of their top priorities and are pushing deadlines hard.
- Coronavirus is a respiratory pathogen. Altimmune’s nasovax solution directly protects the respiratory system while also administering the vaccine.
- Altimmune has the cheapest vaccine solution. Our healthcare system could be totally swamped while professional doctors are requested to administer injections. Cheap = more = higher stocks for $ALT.
- The quick and widespread fear of coronavirus is causing things such as potential [school closures](https://calmatters.org/health/2020/02/california-students-coronavirus-disruption-schools-colleges-online-learning/) while the coronavirus is in effect.
- Altimmune has already gotten the [go-ahead for trials](https://time.com/5790545/first-covid-19-vaccine/).
- While not life threatening, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t cause panic. As the virus continues to spread, people will get [more worried](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/number-of-coronavirus-cases-from-unknown-source-growing-in-us/ar-BB10ygJK?ocid=st2).
- There are all these bear/bull fights going on over $SPY. It doesn’t matter what happens with the overall market, coronavirus is the constant, and Altimmune will go up regardless. It’s a much safer play.
- Analysts [rank stock at over $13](https://i.imgur.com/yHTTDF9.png).
- Bots run 60% of the stock market (arguably more). They pay attention to the news and use them in their algorithms. Altimmune has been **all over** the news.
- On 2020/02/29 the WHO announced a draft list for companies that would work on the vaccine. [Altimmune is on that list](https://www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/novel-coronavirus-landscape-ncov.pdf?ua=1). *I cover this in my introduction
- On 2020/03/02 President Trump met with Altimmune (as well as a few other companies) to [discuss the vaccines and possible cures](https://stockpence.com/featured/trump-meeting-pharmaceutical-coronavirus/amp/).