A bit ago on the last bearish kick, I posted about being in wave 4 into the Elliot wave. As much as the majority of you loved it, here is the update for what happened since then.
I mentioned that we were in wave four and that we are going to be moving into wave 5, we wont see a skyrocket as we did from march dip but it will be a slow and a steady upward movement. So far I think what we have seen has been a little sloppy with minor pullbacks here and there but it has been pointing upwards. You can see that the next movement is wave A , that is the drop. Now wait no no, I didnt say massive dip incoming, stop typing and read!
I am a Technical Analysis and Fundamentals guys, I will have to admit, most technical analysis is thrown out the window in a longer term situation, anything more than a couple of days or a week Tech analysis is less accurate. The next stage makes sense, with every sky rocket rally upwards you will see a pullback which is a Wave A, what follows? a bit of a rebound for everyone who is thinking "oh my that is a really nice price, I missed it last time, all in!!" and the price increases.
What is the next move? I see this still increasing, news is always going to be "vaccine soon" etc etc etec recovery amazing, we just cured cancer etc. Is that bad? not short term, but hold on here and imagine if our financial system implodes due to the historical gap between economy and stocks. That is not the topic rn, its about my analysis. You have to remember that the market has been also moving by new users who just joined the market very recently. News nowadays is what is driving the market, a good PR can send the market flying to an ATH, the rules have changed but still is all about investors psychologist, however, the investors percentages have changed here. Different people, different psychological behaviors.
Now the next question, What are we seeing? We are seeing an Uptrend, Low highs and High Highs. It is not a bull trap my technical definition but a bull rally. Now I for one get pissed off looking at charts, 9/10 friends I have are laid off, I have been laid off as a Civil Engineer and I know work as an administrator with a fraction of my usual pay but I am labelled as "employed" , if I had a mortgage, I would be having a heart attack. My two cents is fundamentals will catch in the long term with stock prices.
Disclaimer = I was betting on a massive dip, I question it now, it is still very possible with one wrong move. Not that I am sitting on the sideline with cash, This week I hit a record high 99.93% in the market and as of Friday I am 82% in the market. It is insanely dangerous for me to catch a dip right now but I am being cautious.
Trade with caution, I am looking to only keep no more than 30% in the market starting next week.
Now the question, why should you listen to me? You are not obligated to do so, this is my opinion outside of the Bear vs bull galactic wars. This is only my opinion, you dont need to start typing in all caps saying you got rich in the last month etc, I made green too calm down. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion 🙂