Quick edit: a few folks have noted that most officials are convinced this is not a terrorist attack or an incident that will result in increased tensions. However, the analysis is an example of things that can move prices, so for those reasons I think this serves as a nice tutorial on how to stay ahead of the game. Flair changed to discussion.

edit 2: Although… trump feels differently: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxcQieT2K20. And I don't post this link to offer any proof of the contrary. The leader of the free world disagrees, and regardless if he is full of shit, people will likely react.

For those who don't know, this happened:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/world/middleeast/beirut-explosion-blast.html

Events like this have a tendency to cause increased tensions in the middle east, particularly if purposefully done with malicious intent. People take sides, trade decreases, etc etc. For those who have not been following oil, the price is still really low and many small US companies are suffering because of it. These little US oil companies need higher prices to profit. Considering the main export from the middle east is oil, if trade tensions rise and foreign oil becomes scarce, these small US companies will take over the supply side as prices rise due to unmet demand. The US has a shit ton of oil too, it just takes a little more money to produce over here, so the US and world economy will be fine. Make sense?

For those long in this game, take note: https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/07/18/the-end-of-the-arab-worlds-oil-age-is-nigh. This is a longer term and different catalyst, but it produces a similar result as above in that the prices many countries need to profitably produce oil is far above the current price of oil, and thus some countries in the middle east may stop exporting altogether or work to raise the price – which again may help smaller oil companies state side because they can now produce at a profit. Of course, Saudi would increase supply in the short term, but there is a limit to their resources, and oil would increase enough to make many small US companies profitable anyway.

If oil is your thing, get some companies on your radar, and start watching for signs of tension over seas. Good luck.

And yes, I feel fucking gross for writing this post.

submitted by /u/myNameIsPDT
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